Introduction

Young people’s educational aspirations (defined as the level of education they hope to achieve) and their educational expectations (defined as the level of education they think will be achieved post-18) (Yarde et al., 2022) are important because they predict university participation and future educational attainment (Anders & Micklewright, 2015; Archer et al., 2007; Croll, 2009). In England, university participation rates arehigh,and university graduates experience significant advantages compared to non-graduates (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development[OECD], 2019). For example, over 36% of young people go to university at the age of 18 (Universities and Colleges Admissions Service[UCAS],2021),and over 46% have entered higher education by the age of 25 (UK Government,2025a). On average, university graduates in England experience higher employment rates and earn £8,000 more per year than their non-graduate peers (UK Government,2025b). Unrealised university aspirations could therefore negatively impact upward social mobility and widen economic disparities.

Educational aspirations and expectations post-18 are intrinsically linked to the process of social reproduction (Archer et al., 2007). Social reproduction is multifaceted. It is situated within young people’s multi-layered contexts (Reay et al., 2001) and is approached through the lenses of gender, ethnicity,and social class (Archer et al., 2007); school-level systems of support and their effects on student decisions and aspirations (Ball et al., 2002); and psychosocial factors such as motivation, attitudes,and self-efficacy (Hartas, 2016; Reay et al., 2001). Drawing upon Bourdieu's social reproduction framework (Bourdieu &Passeron, 1990), it is vital to examine the associations between financial capital (e.g., material resources at family and community levels), social and cultural capital (e.g., gender, ethnicity, school attainment, teacher contact and attitudes), and educational aspirations and expectations post-18.

The roles of gender and ethnicity in predicting university aspirations have therefore been the focus of much research. Ganie’s (2022) systematic review found that females were consistently more likely to report higher university aspirations than males, which is consistent with the larger proportion of females that attend university in England (Hewitt, 2020). However, the opposite pattern may be true for career aspirations, with males more likely to aspire to ‘high prestige’ careers than females (Mendez & Crawford, 2002). Meanwhile, research has suggested that students from Black and ethnic minority backgrounds (BAME) have higher educational aspirations than their White peers (Rudolphi &Salikutluk, 2021). It is important to note there is significant variation between ethnic groups within BAME in terms of progression to university, with students fromaChinese background most likely to be accepted. In England, White pupils have consistently had the lowest university acceptance rates of any ethnic group over the last 15 years (UK Government,2025c).

Socioeconomic status has also consistently been linked with university aspirations and university progression, with young people from wealthier backgrounds intending to stay infull-timeeducation for longer (Ganie, 2022). By the ageof fourteen, there are small but significant differences in students’ educational aspirations by family income, social class, neighbourhood deprivation,and maternal education, and these factors remain predictive of university aspirations even after controlling for attainment (Baker et al., 2014). Moreover, the proportion of disadvantaged students intending to apply to university falls more sharply than their peers between the ages of 14 and 17, suggesting that this is a particularly important period for understanding young people’s university aspirations and future education plans (Anders, 2017). Intersections of gender, ethnicity,and socioeconomic factors show that White males from low-income families have the lowest university aspirations of any group (Berrington et al., 2016).

Within individual and familial contexts, research has also examined the role of psychosocial factors (e.g., self-efficacy, motivation, attitudes to education) in influencing young people’s educational aspirations (Hartas, 2016). Pupils’ attitudes towards school have been found to strongly relate to university aspirations, with 84% of pupils with the most positive attitudes towards school intending to apply to university, compared to just 16% of those with the most negative attitudes (Attwood & Croll, 2011). Individual attitudes could explain 22% of the variation in university aspirations, especially for students from disadvantaged backgrounds (Agasisti& Maragkou, 2023). Meanwhile, students with an external locus of control have been found to be less likely to aspire to university. External locus of control refers to a tendency to attribute success or failure to circumstances beyond our control, which may impact individual agency and decision making (Agasisti& Maragkou, 2023).

Most research on educational aspirations has focused on individual and family factors, whilst school-related factors have received relatively little attention (Bowers-Brown et al., 2019; Ganie, 2022). This has beencriticisedas apportioning blame to individual students and their families, whilst deflecting responsibility away from systemic sources of educational disadvantage (Baker et al., 2014; Bowers-Brown et al., 2019). With the unprecedented disruption to education caused by COVID-19, the research landscape has shifted to examining COVID-19’s ‘syndemic’ effects (a combination of pandemic and systemic effects; see Horton, 2020) on young people’s learning and wellbeing. This is particularly true for Year 11 (age 15/16) students, who were at a crossroads regarding making decisions about their post-16 education pathways (Eiverset al., 2020; Timmins, 2021; Yarde et al., 2022). In England, Year 11 students usually sit their national General Certificate of Secondary Education exams (GCSEs), but these were cancelled in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, generating uncertainty for these cohorts (Timmins, 2021).

At the same time, 30% of Year 11 pupils reported not receiving their statutory entitlement to careers information, advice,and guidance (IAG) due to COVID-19 (Department for Education, 2025; Yarde et al., 2022), leaving these cohorts more reliant on family and friends for IAG (Huband-Thompson et al., 2021). This appears to haveanegative impactontheir university planning. Students who had not participated in any IAG activities were significantly more likely to say that they had “little” or “no” idea what subject they wanted to study at university (24%), compared to those who took part in at least one IAG activity (15%; Yarde et al., 2022). Furthermore, whilst schools provided remote learning activities during the lockdowns, the amount and type of learning varied by household income and parental education (Eiverset al., 2020), with remote learning negatively affecting many pupils’ school engagement and motivation (Howard et al., 2021; Ofsted, 2021). Teachers reported that disadvantaged students were less well equipped to engage with learning and make decisions about their futures, partly because the ‘digital divide’ made it harder for them to access high-quality information during the pandemic (Huband-Thompson et al., 2021). Limited contact with teachers may also have impacted young people’s future educational pathways because student-teacher relationships are a significant predictor of educational aspirations (Baker et al., 2014; Davis & McQuillin, 2023).

Although there is a plethora of research on young people’s learning loss and education disruption due to COVID-19, very few studies have examined university aspirations and post-18 educational expectations during the pandemic. A small qualitative study from the Centre for Education and Youth found that young people were less certain and less positive about higher education options available to them, compared to before the pandemic, because reduced graduate opportunities and remote teaching at university meant that higher education was not seen as a good investment (Huband-Thompson et al., 2021). Despite the crucial importance of understanding what happened to young people’s aspirations and expectations during COVID-19, there have only been a handful of relevant studies that mostly used small samples (e.g., Glick et al., 2025; Huband-Thompson et al., 2021) or were conducted overseas (i.e., Netherlands) whereCOVID-19 restrictionswere experienceddifferently (Fakkelet al., 2023).

The overarching aim of this study was to understand the unique and cumulative contributions of gender, ethnicity andsocioeconomic position; school engagement; educationdisruption; and attitudes, to young people’suniversity aspirationsand post-18 education expectations during the COVID-19 pandemic.Examining educational aspirations during crises is important because aspirations are key indicators about young people being able and willing to re-engage with education andopenconversations about supporting young people to develop resilience and optimism to hold onto their imagined futures. Examining gender, ethnicity, and family- and community-level deprivation are equally vital because external shocks like COVID-19 are felt more keenly in resource-reduced contexts and by young people already vulnerable due to racial and gender inequality (Hartas, 2024;Johnson et al., 2022).

The research questions were:

1.What were the associations between young people’s university aspirations and post-18 education expectations and their demographic (i.e., gender, ethnicity) and socioeconomic position (i.e., Free School Meals (FSM),neighbourhooddeprivation) during COVID-19?

2.Did young people’s school engagement (i.e., online lesson attendance, time spent on schoolwork, contact with teachers outside lessons) during lockdowns contribute to their university aspirations and post-18 education expectations?

3.What were the associations between young people’s university aspirations and post-18 education expectations and education disruption (i.e., days missed, changed education plans) due to COVID-19?

4.Did young people’s attitudes towards education (i.e., motivation, external / internal locus of control) contribute to their university aspirations and post-18 education expectations?

Methodology

Procedures

This researchutiliseddata from the first wave of the COVID Social Mobility and Opportunities(COSMO)Study (Anders et al., 2024).The COSMO study is a major national youth cohort study, set up to examine the short, medium, and long-term impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on educational inequality, wellbeing,and social mobility. Wave one used structured questionnaires to collect data from a representative sample of over 13,000 young people across England, who were in Year 11 in the academic year 2020-21.Young people from socioeconomically disadvantaged backgrounds and those from minority ethnic groups were oversampled to allow inequalities to be explored.The data were collected retrospectively in Autumn 2021. The questionscovered the two major periods of UK school closures (Lockdown 1: April to July 2020 and Lockdown 3: January to March 2021) as well as the time in between when most schools were open (September to December 2020). The students in this study were in Year 10 during Lockdown 1 and Year 11 during Lockdown 3.The study design and the tools for COSMO were approved by the UCL IOE Research Ethics Committee.

Six sets of measures from the COSMO study were used in this paper, namely: demographic measures;socioeconomic measures;school engagement during lockdowns;education disruption due to COVID-19; attitudes towards education; and university aspirations and post-18 educational expectations.

Demographic Information

Gender: There were 46% males and 54% females in the sample.

Ethnicity:Ethnicity data were collected using the census categories but had to be recoded into two groups (60% White and 40% BAME) to avoid small cell sizes.

Socioeconomic Information

Free School Meals (FSM): FSM was measured in quintiles according to the percentage of pupils eligible for FSM in each school (20% highest quintile; 27% second highest; 24% middle quintile; 16% second lowest; and 13% lowest quintile).

Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI): The IDACI is an area-level measure that uses census data to rankneighbourhoodsaccording to the proportion of children under the age of 16 living in low-income households (Adali et al., 2022). IDACI serves as an important proxy for neighborhood-level income deprivation affecting young people. It is measured in quintiles (30% most deprived; 23% second highest; 18% middle quintile; 15% second lowest; and 14% least deprived). 

Online lesson attendance: This was measured as the average number of live online lessons attended during each lockdown. During Lockdown 1, 10% attended less than 1 lesson a week; 21% attended 1-4 lessons a week; 14% attended 1-2 lessons a day; and 55% attended at least 3 lessons per day. During Lockdown 3, 6% attended less than 1 lesson a week; 14% attended 1-4 lessons a week; 12% attended 1-2 lessons a day; and 68% attended at least 3 lessons a day.

Time spent on schoolwork: This was measured as the average number of hours spent on schoolwork each day. During Lockdown 1, 20% reported 2 hours or less; 44% reported 3-4 hours; and 36% reported 5 hours or more. During Lockdown 3, 12% reported 2 hours or less; 35% reported 2-4 hours; and 54% reported 5 hours or more.

Contact with teachers outside of lessons: This was measured as the average amount of contact with teachers outside of lessons (for example,teachers checking in or offering additional help). The data were collected with 5 response categories, but these were recoded into 3 categories due to small cell sizes. During Lockdown 1, 19% reported no contact outside lessons; 36% reported some contact but less than weekly; and 45% reported contact at least once a week. During Lockdown 3, 17% reported no contact outside lessons; 20% reported some contact but less than weekly; and 63% reported contact at least once a week.

Education Disruption due to COVID-19

Changed future education plans: This is a self-reported variable on the extent to which pupils’ future education plans had changed due to COVID-19, with 30% stating ‘not at all’; 51% ‘a little / to some extent’; 7% ‘completely’,and 12% ‘I had not made anyplans’.

Missed school days: This refers to self-reported school days missed due to COVID-19 during the period when most schools were open, with 19% missing less than a week, 63% 1-4 weeks,and 18% 5 weeks or more.

Attitudes Towards Education

Motivation: This was a one-item scale, which asked how the young person perceived that their motivation was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic (25% more motivated, 23% stayed the same,and 52% less motivated).

Locus of control: This scale has five items, namely ‘If someone is not a success in life, it is usually their own fault’; ‘People like me don’t have much of a chance in life’; ‘I can pretty much decide what will happen in my life’; ‘How well you get on in this world is mostly a matter of luck’; and ‘If you work hard at something you’ll usually succeed’.Each item was scored from 1 ‘strongly agree’ to 4 ‘strongly disagree’. Thetotal score was derived by summing the responses to each item, generating a total score ranging from 5 to 20. A low score of 5 to 9 indicates an internal locus of control (4%); a score between 10 and 14 indicates a moderate internal or moderate external locus of control (85%); and a score between 15 and 20 suggests an external locus of control (11%; Adali et al., 2022). The Cronbach’s alpha was .78, showing strong internal consistency. The scale has been found to have good discriminatory validity (Wallston, 2005).

University Aspirations and Post-18 Education Expectations

Likelihood of applying to university: This is one question: ‘How likely do you think it is that you will ever apply to go to university to do a degree?’. The data were collected on a 4-point scale,which was recoded as a binary due to small cell sizes: likely (75%) or not likely (25%) to consider applying to university.

Likelihood of getting into university:This is one question: ‘If you do apply to go to university, how likely is it that you will get in?’. The data were collected on a 4-point scale,which was recoded as a binary: likely (93%) or not likely (7%) to get into university.

University Subject Choice: Participants were asked whether they had ‘a firm idea’, ‘some idea’, or ‘little or no idea’ what course or subject they would like to study at university. This was recoded as a binary: ‘have at least some idea’ (83%) and ‘have little or no idea’ (17%).

Post-18 education plans: This is one question: ‘Which one of these do you think you are most likely to be doing in two years’ time?’. The most common response options were: ‘looking for work or unemployed’ (13%); ‘in an apprenticeship or similar training’ (16%); ‘in a full-time job’ (13%); and ‘studying full-time for a degree or other qualification’ (58%). Due to small cell sizes, this variable was recoded as a binary, studying full time (58%) or doing something else (42%).

Data Analysis Plan

A series of binary logistic regressions (Table 1) were run to examine the unique and cumulative contributions of demographic and socioeconomic measures; school engagement during lockdowns 1 and 3; disruption to education due to COVID-19; motivation and locus of control touniversity aspirations and post-18 expectations. Binary regression analyses were deemed appropriate considering the binary splitting of the recoded outcome variables due to small and largely unequal cell sizes.All regression models were established usingtheentrymethod, with all covariates being entered into models at the same time,guided by prior theory. A stepwise method was not appropriate given the existence of much prior empirical evidence and theoretical frameworks to guide the analyses. Previous research has shown associations between educational aspirations and the predictors used in this study. Missing data were handled via median imputations, where the median value of a variable was used in place of the missing data value for that same variable. This was decided becausethemedian is a reasonable estimate for randomly selected observations from a normal distribution. No interaction effects were tested due to low statistical power and the resulting increase in the probability of Type 1 error.With binary logistic regression analyses, the odds ratio for the predictor variableswasexamined. The odds ratio for a particular variable is defined asebwhereas e is the natural log or base number (2.718) of natural logarithms and b is the logit coefficient estimate of predictors. For specific coding used for the independent variables,please see Table 1 (the reference category for each predictor is presented inbold).

Table 1. Beta and Odds Ratio for Educational Aspirations and Expectations

N= 4456-6764

** P<.001

Results

Regression Assumptions Testing and Effect Sizes

TheNegelkerkepseudoR2was used as an effect size measure for all models, indicating the portion of variance in the outcome variable explained by the predictor variables cumulatively. The Nagelkerke pseudo r2for the outcome variables, namely, likelihood of applying to university, believing they would get into university if they applied, expecting to be in full-time education in 2 years’ time, and having some idea about the university subject they want to study were .38, .34, .41, and .36 respectively, indicating that around 38%, 34%, 41% and 36% of the variance in these outcomes wasaccounted for in the full models. HosmerLemeshowtests were not statistically significant for the same four regression models (X2(8) = 9.85,p< .27; X2(8) = 7.2,p< .51; X2(8) = 3.48,p< .90 and X2(8) = 4.38,p< .82), which means that the observed probabilities matched the predicted probabilities.Finally, to checkmulticollinearity (correlations between predictor variables), the VIF (variance inflation factor) values were calculated, which ranged between 2.5 and6.2 (below 10) across the regression models, indicating that the assumption of multicollinearity was met.

Young People’s University Aspirations and Post-18 Education Expectations and Their Gender, Ethnicity, and Socioeconomic Position

Compared to males, females were over two times more likely to consider applying to university and over one and a half times more likely to expect to be in full-time education post-18, although there was a 58% and 45% drop in believing they would get into university and knowing the subject they would study. In relation to their White peers, BAME young people were around three and a half times more likely to consider applying to university and to expect to be in full-time education post-18, and nearly one and a half times more likely to believe they would get into university, but 28% less likely to have an idea about their university subject (Table 1).

Compared to young people from schools with the lowest proportion of FSM, those from schools with the highest FSM showed a 90%, 57% and 65% decrease in the odds of considering applying to university, expecting to be in full-time education post-18, and having an idea what they want to study, respectively. Compared to young people in the most deprived areas, those in the least were two times, over three and a half times,and 65%, respectively, more likely to consider applying to university, believe they would get into university, and expect to be in education post-18,but 54% less likely to know what to study. Young people from high FSM schools and areas of economic deprivation were less likely to consider university and other education paths post-18 as options (Table 1).

Contributions of Young People’s School Engagement During Lockdowns to Their University Aspirations and Post-18 Education Expectations

In the first lockdown, compared to young people who attended less than 1 lesson a week, those who attended 1-4 lessons a week, 1-2 lessons a day and 3-5 lessons a day or more were 44%, 33%, and 58%, respectively, more likely to consider applying to university; over three times, one and a half times, and nearly two times more likely to believe they would get into university; three, two and seven times, respectively, more likely to plan to be in full-time education post-18; and five, three and seven times, respectively, more likely to know the subject they want study. In the third lockdown, young people who attended 1-4 lessons a week, 1-2 lessons a day and 3-5 lessons a day or more were nearly one and a half times, three and eight times, respectively, more likely to consider applying to university; and were five, six and nearly seven times more likely to plan to be in full-time education post-18. However, those reported attending 3-5 lessons a day or more were 51% less likely to believe they would get into university if they applied (Table 1).

In the first lockdown, compared to young people who spent 2 hours or less on schoolwork each day, those who spent 3-4 hours a day and five hours a day or more were over two and nearly six times, respectively, more likely to consider applying to university. They were also one and a half timesand two times more likely to believe they would get into university,but were 35% and 27%, respectively, less likely to have an idea about the subject they wanted to study. In the third lockdown, young people spending 3-4 hours a day, and 5 hours a day or more on schoolwork were 45% and 47% less likely to consider applying for university and 77% and 63% less likely to believe they would get into university, whereas they were nearly two and four times more likely to plan to be in full-time education post-18 (Table 1).

In the first lockdown, compared to young people who had frequent contact (at least weekly) with teachers outside lessons, those who had contact every 2 weeks / once a month were over two and a half times and 46% more likely to expect to be in education post-18 and believe they would get into university. Interestingly, those who did not have any contact with teachers were over two times more likely to consider applying to university, over seven times more likely to plan on being in full-time education post-18,and over two and a half times more likely to have decided what they would study at university. During the third lockdown, young people who did not have any contact with teachers were over one and a half times more likely to aspire to apply to university but 24%, 64% and 68% less likely to believe they would get into university, know what they want to study, and expect to be in full-time education post-18 (Table 1).

Associations Between Young People’s University Aspirations and Post-18 Education Expectations and Education Disruption due to COVID-19

During the period between the lockdowns, relative to young people who missed less than a week of school due to COVID-19, those who missed 5 weeks or more were 67%, 43%, 58% and 26% less likely to consider applying to university, expect to be in full-time education, have an idea what to study, and believe they would get into one (Table 1).

Compared to young people who reported their future education plans had not changed due to COVID-19, those who said their plans changed ‘a little’ / ‘to some extent’ were nearly one and a half times more likely to consider applying to university, and 79%, 44% and 49%, respectively, less likely to think they would get into university, be in full time education post-18, and know what to study. Young people whose future education plans had changed ‘completely’ were64%, 88%, 69% and 29%, respectively, less likely to consider applying to university, believe they would get into one, know what to study, and expect to be in education post-18. Likewise, young people who ‘had no plans’ were 42%, 89%, and 42% less likely to consider applying to university, believing they would get into one, and expect to be in education post-18 (Table 1).

Contributions of Young People’s Attitudes Towards Education to Their University Aspirations and Post-18 Education Expectations

Compared to young people who reported higher motivation post COVID-19, those who reported their motivation to be the same as before COVID-19 were 66% and 24% less likely to consider applying to university and know what to study. Young people who felt less motivated post COVID-19 were 65% less likely to consider applying to university (Table 1).

Compared to young people with an internal locus of control, those whose locus of control was moderatelyinternal/externalwere 54% and 90% less likely to consider applying to university and know the university subject. They were also over five times more likely to believe they would get into university if they applied, and over two times more likely to expect to be in full-time education post-18. Young people withanexternal locus of control were 47% and 89% less likely to consider applying to university andtoknow what to study, whereas they were over four times more likely to believe they would get into university, and three times more likely to expect to be in full-time education post-18 (Table 1). Finally, there was a discrepancy between the percentage of young people who aspired to university (75%) and that of students expecting to be in full-time education post-18 (58%).

Results Summary

Taken together, the results provide new insights into young people’s university aspirations and post-18 education expectations during COVID-19. Being female and BAME were associated positively with university aspirations and staying on in education post-18. Unlike females, BAME students were also confident about their prospects of securing a place. Young people from high FSM schools and areas of economic deprivation were less likely to consider university and other education paths post-18 as options. Young people whose locus of control was largely external were less likely to consider applying for university and have an idea aboutadegree subject, although they believed they would get into university and be in full-time education post-18. Young people spending 3-5 hours or more attending lessons and doing homework became less confidentthatthey would get into university by the third lockdown, although they still expected to be in full-time education post-18. Also, by the third lockdown, contact with teachers outside school was associated with beliefs about getting into university and post-18 education expectations. Students who missed school between the lockdowns and those whose plans changed due to COVID-19 were less likely to consider applying and think they would get into university, know what subject to study, and be inaneducation post-18.

Discussion

COVID-19 had a widespread impact on young people’s education trajectories and university aspirations, but the results speak more broadly to the role of health crises in adolescents’ education, especially at a critical stage of their schooling when aspirations, attitudes,and thoughts about possible post-18 educational trajectories are consolidated. Young people’s university aspirations and post-18 plans were examined in relation to their demographic and socioeconomic context, school engagement, education disruption, motivation,and locus of control during the COVID-19 pandemic. Various forms of financial and cultural capital were found tobe associatedwith young people’s educational aspirations and expectations. Specifically, gender, ethnicity, and socioeconomic position predicted university aspirations and expectations, but so did access to online lessons, teacher support,and doing schoolwork during the lockdowns. Young people who felt their education was disrupted due to COVID-19 and those with an external locus of control were less likely to consider university and post-18 education as options.

Educational Aspirations and Expectations: Gender, Ethnicity, and Socio-Economic Inequality

Educational aspirations are thought to be particularly vulnerable to healthcrises,especially amongst disadvantaged students who may experience barriers keenly, questioning whether post-18 education is worthwhile or achievable and has advantages regarding upward social mobility (Glick et al., 2025; Sharp et al., 2021).Consistently,our results suggest thatadolescents living in areas of high deprivation and those in schools with a high proportion of FSM were less likely to consider university and plan to be in full-time education post-18. Thesefindingshighlight the important role of socio-economic positioning in shaping aspirations and expectations (Archer et al., 2007), especially during crises. Family resources and parents’ socioeconomic status matter when it comes to children’s educational opportunities and the achievement gap (Hartas, 2024),acting as a buffer against the impacts of external shocks on education. Students in households of higher socioeconomic status at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic suffered fewer educational effects due to lockdowns because they were better positioned to access educational support and services (Torcheet al., 2024), with their parents being able to offer learning support and contact schools about their children’s needs (Hartas, 2024). Young people in the least deprived areas were found to be confident about theirprospects of getting a university place,but were less likely to know what subject to study, expressing uncertainty about university studies and future education.

Educational aspirations have been linked to educational inequality, andas income inequality worsened during the pandemic for certain groups, young people’s educational outcomes were affected considerably (Johnson et al., 2022). Considering child poverty trends, increasing from 27% in 2010/11 to 31% in 2019/20 (Hu & Qian, 2021), young people’s aspirations and social mobility are likely to be impacted.Education disruption due to school closures disproportionately affected disadvantaged children (Azevedo et al., 2021; Hartas, 2023) and children in working-class families (Salisbury, 2020).In the most deprived schools, students were 4 or more months behind at the end of the 2019–2020 school year (Sharp et al., 2021).COVID-19 is an illnessemboldened by social and economic inequality, having a disproportionate impact on those who experience disadvantage (Mezzina et al., 2022). In this study, gender and ethnicity emerged as strong predictors of university aspirations and post-18 education expectations. Adolescent females were more likely than males to consider applying for university,but were less likely to believe they would get into one or know what subject to study. Gender has often been associated with achievement gaps, typically advantaging females (Plante et al., 2024; Voyer & Voyer, 2014). Gender gaps in learning loss during COVID-19 have been found, but the results are mixed, with some studies showing higher learning loss among males (Birkelund & Karlson, 2021; Sass & Goldring, 2021) others showing higher learning loss among females (Arenas &Gortazar, 2024), and a few studies reporting no gender differences (Moliner & Alegre, 2022). Females’ reduced confidence in believing they will get into university may be explained by considering their vulnerability as a group formental health difficulties such as anxiety or depression,which was heightened during lockdowns (Hartas, 2024; Hu & Qian, 2021).

Compared to their White peers, BAME students were more likely to see themselves infull-time education post-18, consider applying to university,and be confident about their prospects of securing a place. This is a heartening result considering thatBAME young people and their families experienced a combination of health risks, limited access to resources and services, adult low-paid employment, and loss of household income during COVID-19 (Platt & Warwick, 2020). The educational aspirations of ethnic minority studentsreflectthe policy focus on driving up HE participation for ethnic minority students,withthetarget to increase the number of ethnic minority students participating in higher education by 20% by 2020 (Department for Business, Innovation & Skills,2015).

Educational Engagement and Disruption, and Attitudes to Education During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The widespread school closures prompted global concerns about learning loss and negative attitudes to education (Dang et al., 2022;Rudlinget al., 2023). In this study, although the number of online lessons attended during the first lockdown was not found to relate to university aspirations, by the third lockdown,students who attended over three lessons a day were more likely to consider applying and expect to be in education post-18, compared to their peers whose online learning was infrequent. By the third lockdown, diligent young people considered future education pathways and were aspirant,but became less confident they would secure a university place. Likewise, compared to their peers who engaged with lessons infrequently, students who engaged with schoolwork every day during the first lockdown were very likely to consider applying to university and believe they would secure a place. However, by the third lockdown, they were less likely to consider applying and believe they would get into university.

As they approached the end of Year 11, diligent students became less confident about future education prospects,although they were still more likely to know what subject they wanted to study. This is an interesting result,albeit inconsistent with previous research findings taken from a single time-point during the COVID-19 pandemic (Betthäuseret al., 2022; König & Frey, 2022). There are several possible explanations for this. Although their aspirations appeared to be largely intact, as the COVID-19 pandemic progressed, students became more aware of the learning loss incurred, thinking that they may not be able to recoup their losses over the next two years. Meta-analytic studies have shown that overall academic achievement has decreased due to COVID-19 (Di Pietro, 2023; König & Frey, 2022),but it is not clear whether this decline persisted or was reversed as students moved out of lockdowns.

An increased risk of mental health difficulties such as mood disorders (e.g.,Hartas, 2024;Racine et al., 2021) and concentration difficulties, irritability, restlessness, loneliness, and worry (e.g.,Orgiléset al., 2020) documented during the COVID-19 pandemic may also explain somestudents’decreased confidence in future education. Exam cancellation and uncertainty about qualifications made students worry about “how their grades might impact their university options and future careers” (Day et al., 2020, p.14). Finally, it could be that some of the students who spent many hours doing homework and attending online lessons did so because of special educational needs and disabilities (SEND),which further exaggerated learning loss (Lenkeit et al., 2022). Clearly, as they moved out of the lockdowns, students became less confident about their education futures.

Contact with school staff and other education professionals can play a mediating role in decisions about students’ futures (Harrison & Waller, 2018). In this study, during the first lockdown, not having contact with teachers outside lessons did not seem to dampen young people’s aspirations. By the third lockdown, they still aspired to apply to university but were less confident about getting in and less likely to expect to be in full-time education post-18. One explanation is that, at the start of COVID-19 restrictions, lack of contact with teachers was not seen as detrimental to their learning because everybody was trying to adjust to the new reality. However, by the third lockdown, limited school staff contact was felt more keenly because it meant fewer opportunities to access IAG (Huband-Thompson et al., 2021) when it was needed,and learning loss became embedded (Di Pietro, 2023). Similarly, young people who missed lots of schooling between thelockdowns were less likely to consider post-18 education, feel confident they would get into university, or know what they want to study. Changes in plans due to COVID-19 made students less confident about post-18 education,but not less aspirant. These findings are consistent with previous research in which uncertainty surrounding exams and post-18 qualifications prompted young people who aspired to go to universitytoquestion whether university was achievable (Serafino, 2020).

Although confident about getting into university and being in full-time education post-18, students whose locus of control was largely external were less likely to consider applying for university and know what they want to study. It is possible they had less control over their lives and were less motivated and adaptable to cope with disruption in their education plans. Students withan external locus of control have been found to have difficulties with decision making due to the lack of flexibility required when information is incomplete or missing (Ulas & Yildirim, 2019), aswas the case during the lockdowns. External attributions about educational outcomes may reduce students’ worry about examcancellationsand post-18 education uncertainty because they see these events as being beyond their control. However,alack of control during health crises can make young people vulnerable, especially those who already experiencedisadvantages.

Clearly, young people’s educational aspirations and expectations are not formed in a vacuum; they are shaped by the habitus developed through their social environment, which includes the capital available to them. Financial and cultural capital becomeinternalised, shaping a young person’s sense of what is possible or realistic in terms of post-18 educational goals. Structural inequalities are both exposed and intensified in times of crisis, and as the findings from this study showed, contribute to the social reproduction of educational aspirations in terms of access to education, advice,and learning opportunities. From a social reproduction theory perspective, health crises like COVID-19 are not just disruptions—they amplify the inaccessibility of public services, with families being expected to manage educational continuity and support. This deepens educational inequalities, as care burdens and educational support fall unevenly across households. 

Conclusion

COVID-19represents a significant challenge for our generation withfar-reaching implications for young people’s education, learning, and life chances due to theloss of learning and educational opportunities.The findings from this study offer a timely perspective on young people’s educational aspirations during, arguably, the most severe disruption of education observed in recent history. The findings showed that vulnerable and disadvantaged young people experienced educational inequality in accessing learning and school support keenly during COVID-19.For young peopleat the cusp of their post-16/18decision-making, limited access to financial and cultural capital, in the form of socioeconomic deprivation, learning loss, limited teacher contact, and negative attitudes to education, are negatively associated with educational aspirations and expectations, ultimatelyreproducing the aspiration gap. Aspirations are not only the result of individual choices but are shaped by Bourdieu’s habitus (e.g., social and institutional contexts) and constrained by the possession of economic and cultural capital (Archer et al., 2014). Although habitus and access to various forms of capital explain the impact of social and educational inequality on how aspirations are reproduced, even when facing similar crises as everybody else, female and BAME young people were more aspirant. This suggests the reproductive power of habitus can still give rise to social transformation, supported by diversity policies, even during a health crisis.At the same time,by the third UK lockdown,young people who were motivated and engaged in learning became less confidentabout their post-18 educational trajectories. Uncertainty about young people’s educational trajectories brought about by the pandemic became embedded and corrosive, altering young people’s imagined futures. The findings in this study challenge narratives of unbounded possibility conveyed by aspiration discourses by showing how reproductive forces in society (e.g., access to education services and resources), affected by a health crisis, associated with young people’s aspirations.Although it may be too soon to observe widespread changes in their education and employment trajectories, students’ aspiration to post-18 education was clearly impacted by school closures, limited access to online learning and teacher support and the ensuing learning loss and lack of advice and guidance regarding post-18 education pathways.

Recommendations

Many young people feel that their future education and career prospects have been damaged by COVID-19. However, because some of the young people who participated in this study are still in education, there are still opportunities to support them primarily through changes inthestudent finance system, considering that financial pressure due to increases in the cost of living since the pandemic has not been addressed by increases in student maintenance loans. Financial support for post-18 education is critical,considering that, in this study, deprivation emerged as a strong predictor of educational aspirations. Also, it is important to reconfigure widening participation policies to support the COVID generation through post-18 education and early career development, especially for young people from disadvantaged households. UK universities often use ‘contextual admissions’ policies to account for socioeconomic disadvantage andneighbourhooddeprivation (Boliver et al., 2021). Mentorshipprogrammesthat extend to post-18 education and careers can support students achieve short- and long-term goals through role modelling and advice on career opportunities. Although educational success is key to accessing thelabourmarket, young people also need mentorship to navigatelabourmarkets and avoid potential mismatches between education and workforce capacityproblems and volatility accentuated by the pandemic. A key question for the COVID-19 generation is whether, for certain groups such as males and White young people who appeared less aspirant thanfemalesand BAME, disparities in educational aspirations and future education plans will drive disparities in participating in post-18 education and thelabourmarket in the longer term. Diversity policies need to widen their remit to support males and socio-economically disadvantaged White young people by removing structural constraints (e.g., limited access to school staff and information and learning resources). Clearly, the impact of the pandemic on education and career trajectories is likely to have long-term implications for inequalities later in life for this cohort in general and disadvantaged members in particular. As such, in addition to promoting post-18 education aspirations, fiscal changes and diversity initiatives are needed to smooth education andlabourmarket shocks, and a policy shift toward more redistribution of opportunities, resources,and services toequaliselife chances for the COVID generation.

Limitations

Important strengths of this study are the range of theoretically significant variables (e.g., education engagement, attitudes, gender, ethnicity,and socio-economic factors) included in our analyses of young people’s educational aspirations andexpectationsduringCOVID-19. The findings contributed toa better understanding ofyoung people’s aspirations and post-18 education plans, and the role disadvantage and vulnerabilityplayduring a health crisis and the educational restrictions it imposed. This is an important contribution as we know little about how disparities in education relate to post-18 aspirations and expectations,and as young people’s post-pandemic educational needs remain unmet. Young people, especially those who experience deprivation,are oftenmarginalisedand resource poor and, thus, likely to fare less well during crises (Burgess et al., 2022;Salisbury, 2020).

There are limitations to this study. The study examined associations, and not causal relationships, between young people’s education and school experiences and their post-18 education plans.The measures used were self-reported and thus prone to bias and did not capture a more nuanced and multifaceted picture of young people’s educational experiences and aspirations during a health crisis. The measure on post-18 education plans was recoded as binary due to small cell sizes, and thus we did not analyse other possible education paths such as apprenticeships,whichwere also affected by the prolonged health crisis (Doherty & Cullinane, 2020).Likewise, the ethnicity measure was not fine-tuned due to small cell sizes,which did not allow disaggregating ethnic minority adolescents into more detailed subgroups. Future research should analyse Pakistani or Bangladeshi students’ aspirations and learning,considering that they have been more disadvantaged than White children or young people from Indian backgrounds. Most importantly, COSMO data were collected retrospectively and thus may be prone to recall bias due to a poor recall of events that happened during the preceding year. Also, psychosocial changes such as maturation and social interactions have taken place that can potentially influence participants’ perceptions and behaviour when they look back at the start of the pandemic. These are important threats to both internal and external validity of the study, especially for more subjective measures such as motivation or attitudes to education. For aspiration measures, it can be argued that maturity and some distance from the lockdowns could have made young people more realistic aboutpost-18 education expectations and options.The effects ofCOVID-19on young people’s educational conditions and post-18 aspirations will be unfolding for the foreseeable future, and thus future research should trace the educational trajectories of this COVID generation into post-18 education and thelabour market to understand the nature of the challenges they face. Finally, research has extensively examined the role of parents in shaping children’s aspirations pre-COVID, but more is needed to understand parental influences during lockdowns, when parents became the key source of information and advice on post-18 education trajectories.

Ethics Statement

The study design and the tools used for COSMO were approved by the UCL Research Ethics Committee at the Institute of Education (IOE). Prior to participating in the study, all participants provided written informed consent, indicating their voluntary agreement to participate.

We would like to thank the UK Data Archive for accessing the COVID Social Mobility and Opportunities (COSMO) study.

Conflict of interest

Generative AI statement

As theauthorsof this work, we did not use an AI tool. We, as theauthors, take full responsibility for the content of our published work.

Hartas: Conceptualization, design, data analysis and interpretation, writing. Jones:Conceptualisation, writing, editing/reviewing.Palikara:Conceptualisation, reviewing